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Examples
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Tony, Tony Rezko please rescue me "BRO". ca-dem wrote on January 24, 2008 2: 07 PM:
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One factor worth considering that will be beneficial for BRO's revenues -- high inflation.
Vitaliy N. Katsenelson: Thoughts on Brown & Brown: Stay Away Vitaliy N. Katsenelson 2011
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In fact, BRO's earnings power is completely at the mercy of the economic recovery.
Vitaliy N. Katsenelson: Thoughts on Brown & Brown: Stay Away Vitaliy N. Katsenelson 2011
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BRO's competitors offer much higher dividend yields and are not priced for growth.
Vitaliy N. Katsenelson: Thoughts on Brown & Brown: Stay Away Vitaliy N. Katsenelson 2011
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This in part explains why BRO's return on capital has been on constant decline since 2000, even before insurance industry entered soft market ROA down from 26.9% in 2000, to 15.6% in 2006, and 10.5% in 2009.
Vitaliy N. Katsenelson: Thoughts on Brown & Brown: Stay Away Vitaliy N. Katsenelson 2011
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This also explains why BRO's margins were historically higher than competitors.
Vitaliy N. Katsenelson: Thoughts on Brown & Brown: Stay Away Vitaliy N. Katsenelson 2011
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Also, kudos to management for using its stock to pay for acquisitions when stock was expensive: between 2000 and 2003, when BRO's stock was trading between P/E of 21 and 26, BRO increased share count by almost 30%.
Vitaliy N. Katsenelson: Thoughts on Brown & Brown: Stay Away Vitaliy N. Katsenelson 2011
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Combination of all these factors makes BRO's future growth extremely sensitive to the growth of the economy.
Vitaliy N. Katsenelson: Thoughts on Brown & Brown: Stay Away Vitaliy N. Katsenelson 2011
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If the economic recovery we are seeing today is real not a foregone conclusion in my mind, considering an enormous amount of stimulus in the system, then insurance market will harden and BRO's earnings will rise.
Vitaliy N. Katsenelson: Thoughts on Brown & Brown: Stay Away Vitaliy N. Katsenelson 2011
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There is also a significant risk of P/E compression, as BRO trading at 17 times 2011 estimates.
Vitaliy N. Katsenelson: Thoughts on Brown & Brown: Stay Away Vitaliy N. Katsenelson 2011
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