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Examples
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People who are in the bottom quartile of actual performance tend to dramatically over-estimate how well they did.
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People who are in the bottom quartile of actual performance tend to dramatically over-estimate how well they did.
Are you aware of your own (in)competence? | Serendipity 2009
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It is possible that the authors over-estimate Social Security and Medicare benefits for low-skill households, in the sense that the cohort of 70-year-olds today includes more people without a high-school diploma than the cohort of young workers today.
Tax-eaters, Arnold Kling | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty 2009
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Ultimately, such people tend to suffer from “senior scientist” syndrome: a lifetime of immersion in their field gives them tremendous expertise in that field, which in turn causes them to over-estimate how well their expertise transfers to a related field.
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I think being smart gives them an unwarranted confidence that causes them to over-reach their actual abilities or over-estimate the accuracy of the conclusions they draw on incomplete information.
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My view is that the media over-estimate the importance of CEO's.
Tolstoy, Hayek, and David Brooks, Arnold Kling | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty 2009
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It is possible that the authors over-estimate expenditures for schooling for low-skill households.
Tax-eaters, Arnold Kling | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty 2009
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These days, I think you can over-estimate the psychological stuff.
Vishy Anand: I found Bobby Fischer surprisingly normal and calm 2011
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I think educators under-estimate and fail to understand the resentment that students develop towards school (and their parents) and over-estimate lack of interest in academics and lack of intelligence.
Earth to Educators: People Hate School, Bryan Caplan | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty 2009
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So models tend to either over-estimate extreme values or underestimate them.
March 29th, 2009 m_francis 2009
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